Spain Blocks Polymarket and Kalshi, Classifies Prediction Markets as Gambling

Spanish regulators have moved to block access to Polymarket and Kalshi, ruling that the prediction market platforms operate as unlicensed gambling services within the country. The action treats event-contract trading as wagering rather than financial speculation, putting Spain at odds with how these platforms are positioned in the US, where Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight and Polymarket runs on crypto rails outside traditional securities regulation.

The ruling adds Spain to a growing list of jurisdictions wrestling with how to categorize prediction markets, which have surged in prominence around elections and major news events. Operators face a familiar regulatory bind: products marketed as information-discovery or hedging tools look indistinguishable from sports betting to gambling authorities, and licensing regimes for the latter carry obligations the platforms are not structured to meet.

For users in Spain, the block likely pushes activity toward VPNs and self-custodied crypto wallets, particularly in Polymarket’s case, limiting the practical enforcement reach. The broader signal matters more: European regulators are increasingly willing to draw a hard line on event contracts, which complicates any expansion strategy that assumes prediction markets can sit in a neutral zone between finance and gambling.