Forecast models give 90% odds this El Niño will smash every record on file

July runs across 667 ensemble members from 14 seasonal forecast models point to an El Niño unlike anything in the observational record. The multi-model median peak sits at 3.6C of detrended sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region — about 0.8C above the prior record of 2.75C from 2015-16. That gap is larger than the entire spread between the first- and fifth-strongest events of the past 150 years, placing the forecast well outside historically observed bounds. Roughly 91% of ensemble members exceed the 2015-16 peak, and every model’s median lands at ‘super’ El Niño intensity, with only one falling below the old record.