Atypical La Niña drives worst U.S. drought in decades across 60% of country

Virginia Tech climatologist Andrew Ellis says the combined intensity and geographic spread of the current U.S. drought is rare, with over 60 percent of the country in drought conditions and more than 20 percent in extreme drought. The driver is an unusual La Niña pattern that shifted the winter storm track north along the Canadian border, starving the southern tier of Pacific storms and choking off Gulf of Mexico moisture into the eastern U.S. What makes this event atypical is that the Pacific Northwest also stayed dry, breaking from the normal La Niña signature. Warmer air temperatures are amplifying the damage by accelerating evapotranspiration from soils.

The hardest-hit zones are Colorado, the central Rockies, the high Great Plains, and the Southeast — particularly Georgia and Florida — with deep drought stretching from the Deep South through the mid-Atlantic. States from New Jersey to Arkansas, which depend on Gulf and Atlantic coastline moisture, have been cut off for six to eight months. The Ohio Valley is the notable exception and has stayed largely drought-free.

Near-term relief is unlikely. Summer rarely breaks deep droughts; the Rockies and Plains depend on winter snowpack, and Southeast summer rains seldom persist long enough to recover deficits. The most plausible reset is late-summer or early-fall tropical systems, which bring their own flood and wind risks. Ellis says a historic El Niño appears possible for next fall and winter, which could flip conditions outright.